The climate change / global warming Denier “Global Cooling” myth just get’s more and more obviously ridiculous every day.
Just a week ago I blogged about the recent Denier spam fest about media reports of local cold snaps. Several of the points I made then have gotten more empirical support since, so this is a quick update.
Surprise – it is still true that regional weather tells you nothing of about climate. Now that the Microwave Temperature Images for October have been released we can see just how true that is. The October 2008 continental U.S. anomaly was -0.135 K ie slightly below normal, while the Northern Hemisphere anomaly was +0.283 K, ie above normal. Globally the (land/sea) anomaly: +0.181 Kelvin ie warmer than normal.
The data also emphasizes how completely useless popular media stories about weather are for giving one any sense of even global weather, much less climate. Looking at the global temperature anomaly map below (red is warmer than normal, blue colder) we can see just how the world looked in Oct.
Reds are warm anomalies, while the darker blues are cold anomalies.
Is anyone really surprised that we got bombarded with stories about cold snaps in the US and Britain, regions saturated with media, while the heat in Africa, Australia, Northern Canada and Northern Russia was largely ignored? (where’s my Homer Simpson emoticon?).
If distant and unfamiliar countries get under-reported, how much more so the open ocean? The NOAA has a sea surface temperature animation here (for keeners), but let’s look at their September 2008 Temperature Anomaly maps from the National Climatic Data Center (Oct not available yet).
From the Land Surface map we see overall September was clearly warmer than normal, but not particularly so. Now if we look at the Blended Land and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies.!
Look’s a bit different, doesn’t it? In fact September 2008 was the 9th warmest ever since 1880.
But let’s not fall into the same trap that the Deniers do. So far all I have demonstrated is that Denier spam is hopelessly wrong about the weather, what about the climate? The fact is that 2008 could be a record cold year globally instead of the 9th warmest (to date) in 129 years and it still would not matter.
I will repeat it as often as necessary, for climate it is the long term trend that matters. Decades, not years, and definitely not one week in the US. So what is the long term trend? Definitely NOT the photoshopped trends that frauds like Gunter and Keen use. The real one looks like these (depending on method of trend analysis).
So, it’s getting warmer. A bit warmer? Getting back to all those Denier spam stories about no warming in a decade, we learn today that “Warming Trend Is Steepest in 5,000 Years” “Research on Arctic and North Atlantic ecosystems shows the recent warming trend counts as the most dramatic climate change since the onset of human civilization 5,000 years ago … .
Let’s emphasize that: “the most dramatic climate change since the onset of human civilization 5,000 years ago”
Does reality slow down the Deniers? Not one bit.
Michael Asher tired to spin the expanding sea ice meme in September in a posting so bad that Deltoid debunked it under the title “You can’t make this stuff up.” Barely two months later we learn from Asher that “Sea Ice Growing at Fastest Pace on Record.”
Some dramatic new development that the rest of us missed? Hardly. It is the same meme as last time. In the interest of “fairness and balance” (I suppose) he is dismissive of researcher Bill Chapman who is actually studying it and says “no big deal.”
To counter Chapman he offers us Patrick Michaels, proponent of the “Climate Change stopped in 1998” fraud and who is doing no related research whatsoever. Michaels uses some carefully chosen language to use the sea ice extent to try and imply that the southern hemisphere isn’t warming (false) and that we expect the Southern Hemisphere to warm as fast as the Northern (false). Asher than states that Antarctica is in a long term cooling trend, failing to mention that it is currently warming.
Of course no one knows what 2009 will be like, but I will risk one prediction.
Despite all of the above we will continue to see the “Global Cooling” fraud over and over and over in the Denialosphere.
Antarctica could burst into flame and they would claim it was cooling. I can see the Asher article now: “Rapid expansion of ice sheet triggers spontaneous combustion.”
Reality has never had the slightest influence on what they claim in the past, why would it now?
UPDATE: Nov 10 17:00
Denier “Challenge” aka Deathwatch Update: Day 34 … still no evidence.