PSDBI have been so consistently impressed with climate science as it is practised by climate Deniers such as Bob Carter, Christopher Monckton and others that I thought I would try using some of their techniques myself and see what I could discover.
In the spirit of all of the recent reports about what a cold day they had in Anchorage or St Paul (and therefore global warming is over!) I too decided to choose a single local example and pretend it somehow would represent trends for the whole planet.
For ease I picked my own city. Since so many worthy Deniers are already working the annual temperature data I decided to make new scientific discoveries by looking at the seasons instead.
Taking the temperature record from last spring I plotted the temperatures for the first three weeks of May.
Just as I suspected, and as you can clearly see even from the raw plot, the bogus “Spring Warming Theory” is false and the earth was obviously cooling.
However, this is pretending to be science, so to maintain the charade I added some regression lines just like real scientists do. The 2nd order polynomial trend (red) nicely shows the cooling, but the linear regression (black) still shows a warming trend for last spring.
Consulting with my Denialist mentors I saw how they cherry picked regressions that began from the highs of 1998 or 2001, so I choose an equally short line starting with the last highest temperature point (yellow).
Now we can clearly see the cooling trend that I was predicting, and which completely blows away the “Spring Warming Theory” hoax.
Of course many Deniers are not content to have demonstrated that climate science is false, they claim that their trend lines indicate that we are heading for an ice age.
I felt that I could do better than that (this is pretending to be science after all). I can not only predict an ice age, by extending the line (in the spirit of Lorne Gunter and others) I can predict when it will happen. So I extended the polynomial trend for 30 days.
With global temperatures dropping below freezing by the end of May we undoubtedly experienced huge crop failures and mass starvation.
Things got worse with temperatures continuing to plummet to -80 C by the end of June. Obviously by this point humanity and most life on earth was dying off. Humans undoubtedly went extinct in early July, and by mid to late July Earth was a frozen, lifeless ball comparable to Neptune.
I checked my idea against the ‘Denier Climate Theory Credibility Score’:
- Did I cherry pick unrepresentative locations and trivially short time spans? Check!
- Did I misrepresent the data I used? Check!
- Did I misuse analytic tools to get the results I wanted? Check!
- Did I not cite sources for data, methods, etc? Check!
- Did I dismiss the real science as flawed, corrupt or distorted rather than deal with it honestly? Not yet, but I will.
You see, the one flaw was how had this had been kept from everyone? How is it that summer 2008 never came and we went extinct instead, yet there was no mention of it in the main stream media?
Going back to the Denialosphere I quickly had my answer, a global conspiracy!
Obviously meteorologists and weathercasters would continue to claim that summer was coming because who needs a weatherman if you already know each day is just going to get colder? They were just trying to ensure their funding and jobs.
The mainstream media already had all of their ad campaigns for swimsuits, jet skis, and summer vacations lined up. There was no way they were going admit that it was a waste of advertiser money, so they weren’t going to breath a word about it either.
Of course the government is conspiring to establish a single world UN Government. How much easier is that when humanity is extinct and the planet is lifeless?
It obviously worked perfectly for their plan to claim that ‘Spring Warming Theory’ was real and summer was coming. That way the sheeple were kept docile while Agenda -21oC was implemented
I checked my idea against the ‘Denier Conspiracy Theory Credibility Score’ (rated against all existing Denier Conspiracy Theories):
- Is there absolutely no evidence for my claims whatsoever? Check!
- Is it utterly idiotic? Check!
- Does it fly in the face of the most basic common sense? Check!
- Did I include a reference to or picture of Al Gore, no matter how irrelevant? Check!
No doubt you will be reading about the ‘Spring Warming Theory Hoax’ at NewsBlusters, Wattsupmyass, and ClimateFraudit in the next week or two.
Since the scientists, weathercasters and IPSW (Intergovernmental Panel on Spring Warming) are all part of the conspiracy they would probably claim that I should have plotted the data from March to the end of May
or at least at all of May
but that would have hidden the real truth, that summer 2008 was not coming, humanity and earth was doomed – the facts don’t lie!
But for those who still believe that some people might misuse data and techniques in order to lie (oh, like to claim we are experiencing ‘Global Cooling’):
- Jules Klimaatblog has a good A layman’s guide on cherry-picking as to why this sort of thing is pure bullshit;
- Tamino illustrates some other recent data abuses in Cold Hard Facts;
- and Grumbine explains exactly why a 30 year run is what you need for any sort of meaningful climate science in How to decide climate trends.
- and many, many links debunking the “Global Cooling” idiocy.
Is what I have done here completely idiotic? of course!
And I did it in exactly the same way Carter, Monckton and the other Deniers conduct their stupidities.
The only real difference is that I did with an example that every thinking person would immediately realize is complete nonsense. The entire “Global Cooling” fable is every bit as idiotic because it comes from (mis)using the same methods, but it’s ridiculousness is less obvious to the average person.
- Fractured air
- How hot should it have really been over the last 5 years?
- Australia 5+1
- Long hot summer
- Is there a link between Adelaide’s heatwave and global warming?
Which, mindful of Dr Pope’s admonitions, is to say that while they have not necessarily been caused by climate change, they are certainly consistent with what we understand of climate change.
Not that this will slow down the Deniers one little bit. They are happy to claim global cooling without even pretending to have facts, but hopefully it helps rational folks understand why ‘Global Cooling’ is such blithering nonsense.
We give our consent every moment that we do not resist.
Denier “Challenge” aka Deathwatch Update: Day 115 … still no evidence.