BPSDBPerhaps I give climate change Denier Anthony Watts too little credit for craft and and deceit. His clumsy handling of the Sinclair video incident suggests definite ineptitude, yet I detect a certain cunning in how he handles topics on his web site. He certainly seems to be an avid student of Sir Humphrey Appleby of Yes Minister fame when it comes to being dishonest.
One consistent tactic that I have noticed is that of making some outrageous claim in the title of a blog post, and then to say absolutely nothing related to it in the post itself. This is straight out of Appleby’s guide to deception:
‘I explained that we are calling the White Paper Open Government because you always dispose of the difficult bit in the title. It does less harm than in the statute books. It is the law of Inverse Relevance: the less you intend to do about something, the more you have to keep talking about it”
Take his latest contribution to climate ignorance “Woods Hole embraces the Medieval Warm Period – contradict Mann’s proxy data.” Impressive claim. A major blow to the infamous “Hockey Stick“, and certainly a problem for Mann et al … if that is in fact the case.
As you may have guessed, searching Watts’ article for any mention of Mann is a futile endeavour. Nothing about Mann et al or their study, much less how the Woods Hole study contradicts it, or is in any way inconsistent with it, or anything of the sort. Nothing, nada, zilch, gar nichts.
Note by the way, that to Watts it is “Mann”, not Mann et al. It’s so much easier to make the fiction of error believable if you imply that it is the work of one person that is wrong, rather than that of Michael E. Mann, Zhihua Zhang, Malcolm K. Hughes, Raymond S. Bradley, Sonya K. Miller, Scott Rutherford, and Fenbiao Ni.
Regardless, I wanted to accuse Watts of empty words, but other than the title there isn’t even that. It takes only the slightest word substitution to get:
‘I explained that we are calling the article “Woods Hole embraces the Medieval Warm Period – contradict Mann’s proxy data“ because you always dispose of the difficult bit in the title. It does less harm than in the post itself. It is the law of Inverse Relevance: the less you intend to actually say about something, the more you have to claim that you will say it”
A pity, because I was really curious to see how the Woods Hole study contradicted Mann et al’s data rather than their interpretation or methodology. Apparently I will never know. I guess if you are not actually going to say anything you can afford to be a little loose with your word choice. On that note, why not “Mann et al traffics crack and children”? or “Mann et al born in Kenya”?; as long as you’re making things up why not go for the whole enchilda?
If you suspect it is because his fans would not believe such outrageous allegations, I have to wonder. If you check the comments on the article there is the usual uncritical gullibility of climate change Deniers, a credulity that absolutely beggars belief. Everyone takes it as given that Watts has somehow demonstrated the claim in his title. Do they even read his articles? I could understand why one would not want to, but even so …
Needless to say Climate Despot has put it on the front page, so we can expect the contagion to have infected the entire Denialosphere within a day or two.
On the plus side it serves as a perfect example of one of the easiest types of climate change denial to refute, the ones that don’t actually say anything at all. These are actually more common then most people realize, so I find it always pays to do what the Deniers apparently rarely do, which is to actually read the article.
“Many of America’s most important commercial crops require between 400 and 1800 hours each winter when the temperature is below 45 degrees Fahrenheit.” Earth Gauge
We give our consent every moment that we do not resist.
Denier “Challenge” aka Deathwatch Update: Day 309 … still no evidence.
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The Medieval Warm Period is interesting in it’s own right. This is how I see it, although I might (probably) be wrong. [1]
1) The MWP was real, widespread and far from universally benign.
2) There appears to be a movement of the heat, the dates don’t seem quite the same.
3) We are now hotter than the MWP but have a long way to go in terms of duration. Drought disease and pestience are all going to get worse.l [1]
Mann’s work does show a MWP, that I would like to know much more about. Unfortunately scholastic discussion is swamped by denier noise.[2]
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I don’t know how much you know already, Tony, so apologies if you’ve already read it – but Chapter 6 of the IPCC AR4 is quite a good place to start. (Scroll down to page 466 to get to the beginning of the discussion of the MWP).
It compares and contrasts results from a number of different studies, and also (I think usefully) discusses some of the problems with interpretation and spatial coverage.
Hope this helps.
do you mean native guile or naive?
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Re: A. Watts, title and content
I think it might be something he has picked up from UK tabloid headlines and content.
Actually you can read a newspaper article in the UK and most of it will be opinion, until the last paragraph or so, where finally the reality is revealed which usually contradicts the opinion expressed in most of the article.
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A result of the “inverted pyramid” paradigm at work? In a typical news article, the new information tends to be presented before the background context. Naturally then, if the ‘news’ story is itself bogus, then all but the last few paragraphs will be garbage.
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I’ve on many occasions pointed out at WUWT that the post title is belied by the content, or that the title distorts the content. Cognitive dissonance is alive and well there. They just don’t see it. Usually, they don’t respond. When they do, they never answer the rebuttal. Except…
Watts once replied to me that the media distorts the news towards global warming, so his site is an attempt to redress the balance by reporting the other way.
Still confused about the MWP
One more question? Could the Black Plague that peaked in Europe about 1350 and killed about half the population (30 to 60%), have contributed to the ending of MWP. Far less agriculture, land clearing ect.
This would not agree with Crowley and Lowery
http://ambio.allenpress.com/perlserv/?request=get-document&doi=10.1639%2F0044-7447(2000)029%5B0051%3AHWWTMW%5D2.0.CO%3B2
“The most prominent times of Medieval warmth in the composites are restricted to 3 relatively narrow intervals (1010–1040, 1070–1105, and 1155–1190).”
Cronin and others http://www.sciencedirect.com/science?_ob=ArticleURL&_udi=B6VF0-47CY5M9-1&_user=10&_rdoc=1&_fmt=&_orig=search&_sort=d&_docanchor=&view=c&_searchStrId=1020636930&_rerunOrigin=scholar.google&_acct=C000050221&_version=1&_urlVersion=0&_userid=10&md5=b96b5f2340ab5d0dacf193ee05f0fca4
Consider the North Atlantic Oscilation significant.
Zhang looks at the MWP in China
The MWP is interesting and confusing.
Thanks for the tips
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