BPSDB The bleat goes on, the bleat goes on
Deniers keep pounding a rhythm to the brain
La de da de de, la de da de da
- Plimer sinks even lower
- Lost and tampered data
- $22 million FUD
- Jones steps down, data being released
Plimer sinks even lower
“If you have to argue your science by using fraud, your science is not valid.”
Ian Plimer commenting on the theft and release of the emails from the Climate Research Unit
This absolutely beggars belief. This from the man who’s climate book is nothing but one long string of frauds from start to finish, who’s idea of debate is juvenile fraud. Is he that clueless about science? integrity? himself? or all three?
If you have the stomach for a relentless spew of hypocrisy and stupidity you can read the rest here, but it’s just the same old frauds that Plimer has been spouting all along. A more recent debunking of Plimer is Leprechauns and climate by the apsmith 🙂 .
Lost and tampered data
In my run through of the CRUde Hack memes the other day I neglected to mention the “lost and tampered data” memes.
Data tampered with
This is the effort to try and spin the tree proxy related “hide the decline” quote into some sort of evidence of temperature data tampering. As discussed, it’s not. However, just for those who find the real explanation unconvincing, here are the plotted temperature records from the four major data aggregators, including CRU:
We can clearly see how CRU differs wildly from the others due to the alleged tampering … NOT; so can we dismiss that claim for the politically motivated lie that it is?
Lost data
Another meme that has resurged is that HadCRU lost/destroyed all of the raw data so that no one could check their results. The facts are that in the 1980s CRU disposed of their copies of the original data, although they still have the adjusted data and the record of corrections.
The originals are still available from the various national weather service sources for anyone who wants to ask for it:
- Is Phil Jones supressing data?
- McIntyre versus Jones: climate data row escalates
- Santer, Jones, and Schneider respond to CEI’s phony attack on the temperature record
- Data available from CRU
And would someone please tell me what Freeedom of Information requests were active at the time, almost 20 years before there was an FOI Act? Just asking.
Somehow all of this reminds me of a quote I saw recently:
“If you have to argue your science by using fraud, your science is not valid.”
Now where did I see that?
In the meantime CRU is releasing all of the data that it is legally entitled to, which I will paranthetically note has always been available to and released to other scientists, and 95% of it has been released to others in the past.
For those who like to claim all of the climate data is hidden RealClimate offers a guide of where to find pretty much all of the major climate data. It’s a handy guide for sure, but in fact in the past all you actually had to do was use a search engine for a few minutes to find it; a challenge that seems to defeat your average Denier.
$22 million FUD
Another strand in the Denier flock’s bleating is that Phil Jones received $22 million in research grants. Needless to say this is meant to appeal to those who imagine that Jones got to slip it into his own pocket. The truth is that grants are administered by the University and the researcher has to account for every penny.
Naturally there are some opportunities for limited abuse, such as attending more conferences, staying in slightly nicer hotels while at conferences, etc. However this tends to be self defeating in that every dollar wasted in this manner does not support your research (new equipment, more tech support, etc). As a result your research declines, and then so do your grants.
As a consequence pretty much every researcher I have known has been modest to Scrooge like in their discretionary spending. From staying in student dorms during conferences to using the conference wine and cheeses to cut out meal expenses, they scrounge every dollar they can for the work.
The funniest attempt to spin this one that I saw was the claim that by getting big grants Jones guarenteed his job security and likelihood of career advancement. Ahhh … doing your job well is an underhanded way of keeping your job … how nefarious and corrupt of Jones!
Predictably no one can show that Jones got even a penny for himself that he was not legally and ethically entitled to, nor that he ever did anything but good science. It’s just the usual Denier slander and nothing more.
Jones steps down
Well, the news of Jones stepping down as Director of the Climatic Research Unit has certainly taken the wind out of my call for his resignation.
This was drafted in response to Monbiot’s The Knights Carbonic:
In a coming post I will document why I think there is probably no grounds for actual prosecution etc, at least based on what we know to date, but Jones had clearly become obsessive about not releasing the data to McIntyre. His actions may not have been actually criminal, but the most charitable one can be is to say that some of them were quite probably unethical.
I understand the pressures he was under and his reasons for the actions. I can even sympathize, but sympathy does not equal exoneration, nor is an explanation an excuse. It’s pretty clear that he went too far and no one did Jones any favours by not reigning him in.
Whether Jones actually deserves formal consequences is up to some sort of impartial, formal review process at the CRU. Regardless, the reality is that he is now so compromised that he is a liability to CRU in particular and climate science generally. I agree with Monbiot that he should resign.
Not merely resign, but come forward with the details on any and all instances where his behaviour was even borderline, even those that may not be known about at all. It is the only way to clear the air about the science itself.
And CRU should release all of the data that it is legally permitted to.
More prescience blown (damn the blogging backlog). Anyway, as the song suggests, this too shall pass
Charleston was once the rage, uh huh
History has turned the page, uh huh
CRU hack posts on this blog here.
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Re: the ‘four’ temperature records, aren’t they at bottom 90-95% the same? Different groups just decided to tweak them differently. They should look the same, it would be surprising if they didn’t.
On the ‘hide the decline’, the meme is incorrect, but I’m not sure the truth is much better. The decline hid the fact that Mann’s proxy was unreliable. If the decline wasn’t damaging, why did he want to hide it?
C’mon, Nemo, take the red pill.
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The decline hid the fact that Mann’s proxy was unreliable.
I’m sorry, which proxy?
If the decline wasn’t damaging, why did he want to hide it?
Because it was an outlier, compared to all the other proxies … plural.
Uh, no. Because it diverged from the instrument data.
So you’re saying that this one proxy is garbage even before the divergence? Didn’t the NRC already deal with this three years ago?
I see that I was reading too much into McKitrick:
The Mann multiproxy data, when correctly handled, shows the 20th century climate to be unexceptional compared to earlier centuries.
… and so had assumed that the divergence issue also concerned multiproxy data rather than just dendrochronology versus instrumental data.
Note to self: stop reading McKitrick.
Then again, you could always throw it out:
Click to access MannetalPNAS08.pdf
… for all the difference it makes.
Who cares about the satellite, the important thing here is the long term trends.
And so you agree, GISS and CRU are same sources. So why should they be different? The fact that they’re similar doesn’t prove any ‘reliability’ in the data.
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IIRC the GISS has polar data that the CRU does not.
But why, exactly, are the data supposed to be un-reliable?
That differs from my understanding of it (I could be wrong). I believe they both have the same polar data, but GISS treats the sparse polar data they have as representative of the Arctic as a whole, whereas CRU only treats the data as representative of nearby areas, thus giving the Arctic a lower weight in their series.
True. My bad.
That is a reply to the moderator, not Mr. Moore.
cognitive dissonance is a painful process man. Get a tea. It’s going to take awhile.
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Fiddling while the planet burns, time is very short.
Humans have a long and sorry history of doing just that…
It may be that we’re not much different in our response to the legendary frogs in hot water – give us a sudden crisis and everyone pulls together to respond; but say something’s gradually getting worse and if we don’t get out now then oneday we’ll be cooked doesn’t really have any motivating effect…
I suppose you mean the legendary brainless frog in hot water.
OhMiGod,
I actually remember watching that luscious little number on the teevee, long ago.
Thank you for that, Greenfyre! A moment of levity is always welcome.
I’m afraid I haven’t kept up with the tree ring stuff. Are they trying to reconcile the lack of growth to warming? Could any lack of tree ring widening expected from warming be attributed to pollution inhibiting growth??
just askin’
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“The truth is an offence
But not a sin
Is he who laugh last,children
Is he who win
Is a foolish dog
Bark at the flying bird” — Bob
Stay tuned for Episode II: The Revenge of the Science.
Roger Harrabin asks:
“Will the university find a way of seeking the opinion of key sceptics like Lord Lawson before they name the chair? My guess is that if key players like Lord Lawson don’t support the chair’s independence, the inquiry will be compromised.”
This is the same Nigel Lawson who appeared in the fraudulent documentary “The Great Global Warming Swindle”, and now he wants a say in an enquiry into the scientific process.
Somebody should tell him to learn to recognise good science form a hole in the ground first.
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Greenfyre,
So true! It’s especially amusing to see the following Lord Munchkin has with US freedumb-or-death wingnuts.
Hi,
Sorry, but I can’t agree about Jones resigning being desirable or a good thing. First, it has been widely taken as a sign that fraud has taken place and will be echoed as such for the next decade or so. [1]
Second, it means that it is apparently now permissible to hack into the computers of ANYONE who does research that happens to run contrary to the interests of big business, publish everything online and trawl through the results for anything that can be used in any way against those scientists. [2]
If this carries on then the denialists will win by virtue of making climate research a practical impossibility. [3]
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Andrew, I agree.
I don’t share Monbiot or Greenfyre’s assessment. If there is nothing to suggest any fudging of data (and so far the evidence is that there is nothing to suggest fudging, or as the deniers put it, ‘overstatement’ of the knowledge of the climate crisis) then he should return to his position (and probably will be asked to) in order to defend the integrity of the research team as a whole. He is not a lone researcher, sprung from the head of Zeus like Athena. A defense of the public involves a defense of the facts.
I think the important thing is that the inquiry make its findings public. A permanent removal of Jones does not add to the credibility of that process and is not what they want (because if they wanted him to resign, they would have asked him to resign… maybe they did and he refused, but that’s not likely).
Anyway, Jones has not resigned. He has stepped aside, presumably in discussion with CRU, for the purpose of an objective review; and that was to be expected. They have to look into the facts and an independent review must be conducted. As we know, reviews determine whether there is a basis for more formal investigation.
Fascinating discussion about perceptions, crises of legitimation, the nature of professionalism, scapegoating, the collective practice of science vs. the romantic ideal of the lone scientist, politics, etc.
🙂
You mention 4 data aggregators in your post, I thought there were 3??
CRU, NASA and NOAA.
Who is the 4th?
The ones in the graph are NASA GISS, Hadley, UHA and RSS (and a combination denoted “Wood For Trees Index” or WTI).
OK, thanks.
What are UHA and RSS?
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Paul UK,
I’m surprised. These are commonly cited, UAH especially (John Christy and Roy Spencer produce their data), by deniers.
I can recommend WoodForTrees
(see also notes) where you can play with the data from the different sources yourself. The site owner keeps all the data up-to-date and it saves you downloading and using your own spreadsheet.
Jones has not ‘stepped down’ or resigned.
He has necessarily ‘stepped aside’ while an independent review is conducted.
Big difference. 😉
It is important that a review is not only in fact independent, but that it be perceived to be independent. It is to be expected that Jones step aside for this process.
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By what ever means (hacking or whistleblower) the exposure of scientific or government fraud is crutial to our existance. Phil Jones et al have demonstrated an attitude, on at least face value, in conflict with sound science, they have lost public trust and needs to go away. Forever.
{The bigger issue is not being discussed at all … that suddenly climate science will feel they are living in a metaphorical North Korea where every conversation is potentially monitored, and hence everything said must be strictly politically correct from a Denier perspective}
Who in the hell are you trying to kid? This group of thugs strong armed science for political goals. That was ok as long it fit your politics? [1]
Kevin Trenberth said it well. “The fact is that we can’t account for the lack of warming at the moment and it is a travesty that we can’t. The CERES data published in the August BAMS 09 supplement on 2008 shows there should be even more warming: but the data are surely wrong. Our observing system is inadequate.” [2]
Perhaps we should get a better grip on what drive climate before making trillion dollar changes to our economy by abandoning carbon based fuel. [3]
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Yeah right, that’s the behaviour of a “group of thugs” that “strong armed science”! Imagine, my friends, Kevin Trenberth in a brown shirt, wearing jackboots, and with a swastika on his sleeve as he said those words!
Alternatively, one can return to the real world and realize that our inactivist Ray is talking complete nonsense.
No “scientific or government fraud” has been “exposed”. On the contrary, it’s clear as day that a criminal act of cracking has been perpetrated, as every piece of available evidence indicates.
— bi
Ray said: “Who in the hell are you trying to kid? This group of thugs strong armed science for political goals. That was ok as long it fit your politics?”
Dear Ray:
The science is OK, the problem is that in order to mitigate what the science indicates, then politics gets involved.
Your interpretation of the situation is that politics drives everything first and every motive. For me and many others that isn’t true. In fact for me it is the political system that has caused the problem, or in other words I have no confidence in capitalism, communism, socialism, liberalism, fascism or any current economic theory that is practised to be a model of how future humanity should develop.
If that means I have in your eyes a political bias, then it just shows how you don’t understand the science or the situation we are all in. You have your head in the sand.
http://www.breadwithcircus.com/#120209
wanted to share this podcast, about how the deniers are using the “truth” movement to advance their agenda
I think that was merely opinion, which might not be shared by the other climate scientists at CRU. Alternatively, it might refer to the fact that GISSTemp is showing some warming, while CRU data show less warming in the last decade or so.
1998 deviated from the trend so much, that it’s not surprising it would take a while for warming to resume at the expected rate. Then 2008 was an anomalous year too. If you look at the big picture, there’s not a whole lot of deviation from the long term trend compared to what you see historically. None of it is surprising, and 2009 is already a warm year.
Joseph,
HADCRUT shows less warming because it ignores the Arctic, which is warming faster than the (average of the) rest of the planet. That’s why GISTEMP has 2005 as the warmest year, whereas HADCRUT still has 1998.
In that email Trenberth referenced one of his papers before he made the quote. That paper is key to the context of what he is saying.
Trenberth is arguing that the observation system for tracking where heat is going in the climate system is inadequate. This raises the possibility that the Earth has gained heat in recent years but this hasn’t been picked up.
Alll is not lost, support from the hard right.
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/damianthompson/100018807/us-creationists-back-climategate-scientists/comment-page-1/#comment-100096858
Wow. Is this the greatest irony ever?
Or just something meant for Denial Depot?
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