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Tumblin’ dice

BPSDB

I recently made an earlier attempt at exploring probability in relation to climate.

Michael Tobis (citing Andy Revkin) points to a very nice and more succinct analogy by Professor Steven Sherwood of the University of New South Wales:

The “loading the dice” analogy is becoming popular but it misses something very important: climate change also allows unprecedented (in human history) things to happen. It is more like painting an extra spot on each face of one of the dice, so that it goes from 2 to 7 instead of 1 to 6. This increases the odds of rolling 11 or 12, but also makes it possible to roll 13.
What happens then?
Since we have never had to cope with 13’s, this could prove far worse than simply loading the dice toward more 11’s and 12’s. I’m not sure whether or not what is happening in Russia or Pakistan is a “13” yet, but 13’s will eventually arrive (and so will 14’s, if carbon emissions continue to rise).

Michael thinks that we have just seen our first thirteen (or possibly our second if you count Australia’s experience in 2009).
He goes on to say

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Lily the Pink

BPSDB

On the left – the official UK government coat of arms.

On the right – the logo used by Christopher Monckton on his presentations.

By far the best comment that I’ve seen on the two images was one by Vagueofgodalming over at Deltoid:

Nice to see the two logos side by side: one can see that in Monckton’s version the chains are unhinged and there is empty space beneath the crown.

You are probably already aware of this, but since threatening John Abraham Christopher Monckton has also attacked Scott Mandia.

Mandia has published Monckton’s letter here.

I guess that Monckton must like the limelight, because he’s certainly attracting it.

Tamino does (yet another) demolition job on Monckton’s statistical skills at Mo’ Better Monckey Business

Moth Incarnate posts a couple of good cartoons here and (with some insight that I had overlooked) here.

Real Climate host a guest article by Barry Bickmore of Brigham Young University entitled “Monckton makes it up”.

Most recently, The Guardian points out that the House of Lords are getting stroppy with him for his continued claims to be a member. They write:

Last month Michael Pownall, clerk of the parliaments, wrote to Lord Monckton, a hereditary peer, stressing that he should not refer to himself as a member of the House of Lords, nor should he use any emblem representing the portcullis.
In a letter seen by the Guardian, Monckton replied this week to Pownall stating that he considered the House of Lords Act 1999, which “purported” to exclude all but 92 of the 650 hereditary peers from the Lords, to be “defective”.

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Dunce’s corner

BPSDB

I’ve been thinking about doing something like this for a while now.

Every now and them we get comments that are completely off topic, and barely understandable. I’ve decided that rather than just deleting them I’ll save them for posterity.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

First up is “Tommy” commenting on the 9th August 2010 on this post

Damn those Chinese Communists and their blatant trashing for our beautiful planet. How incredible that all communist countries are given a pass of their universal disregard of environmental destruction. When the doors opened on the former Soviet Union the truth came out…. what will we find when China is more open? It’s too bad Obama is just a Bush of a differnet color.

 

 

IMAGE CREDITS:

[1] – Postcard World

 

Comment Policy

Comments that are not relevant to the post that they appear under or the evolving discussion will simply be deleted, as will links to Denier spam known to be scientific gibberish

  • The “Mostly” Open Thread
    is for general climate discussion that is not relevant to a particular post. Spam and abuse rules still apply;
  • The “Challenging the Core Science” Comment Thread is for comments that purport to challenge the core science of anthropogenic climate change.

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A new alliance

BPSDB

 

The American Chemistry Society and the UK’s Royal Society of Chemistry have joined forces in a transatlantic venture to “help the general public better understand how the science of chemistry can help solve global challenges”.

The first step has just been launched – a pair of mirrored websites with contributions from both organisations. However this is just the beginning:

The Web sites are the first of several planned joint efforts by ACS and RSC to increase public understanding of the challenges facing Earth as well as the chemistry underlying these issues and their possible solutions. The societies also hope to inspire a new generation of scientists to explore solutions to these challenges, and promote the international cooperation that both organizations believe is necessary to sustain our environment and resources for future generations.

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Lords a’leaping

BPSDB

“It’s beginning to look like a pattern…”

 

I’m sure that you’re all aware of the recent outcomes of the various “gates” in the recent past, but if you have missed them you can read Richard Black’s take on them here and here.

Of course there are anguished howls of “Whitewash!” reverberating around the blogosphere, but the mainstream media has largely lost interest. Maybe now we can get back to something approaching normality.

Maybe….

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BPSDB

“We, the undersigned, having assessed the relevant scientific evidence, do not find convincing support for the hypothesis that human emissions of carbon dioxide are causing, or will in the foreseeable future cause, dangerous global warming.”

 

So claim the ICSC (International Climate Science Coalition), who have launched a new petition.

Why yet another petition?

The answer, according to the ICSC, is here.

Let’s look at it point by point.

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A Glorious defeat

BPSDB

Christopher Monckton has recently been debunked (again) by John Abraham, Professor of Engineering at the University of St. Thomas in Minnesota.

The university is a is a Catholic, diocesan university based in the Twin Cities of St. Paul and Minneapolis. Abraham’s disecection of Monckton’s talk has predictably gone viral, so you’re probably already aware of it – but if you missed it you can find his talk here. Well worth a listen.

Many blogs have already picked up on this. Mockton replies here, and Abraham in turn replies in a guest post at Skeptical Science (which has a further response from Monckton).

Is Monckton getting increasingly strident with time, or am I just imagining it?

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