PSDBI have been so consistently impressed with climate science as it is practised by climate Deniers such as Bob Carter, Christopher Monckton and others that I thought I would try using some of their techniques myself and see what I could discover.
In the spirit of all of the recent reports about what a cold day they had in Anchorage or St Paul (and therefore global warming is over!) I too decided to choose a single local example and pretend it somehow would represent trends for the whole planet.
For ease I picked my own city. Since so many worthy Deniers are already working the annual temperature data I decided to make new scientific discoveries by looking at the seasons instead.
Taking the temperature record from last spring I plotted the temperatures for the first three weeks of May.
Just as I suspected, and as you can clearly see even from the raw plot, the bogus “Spring Warming Theory” is false and the earth was obviously cooling.
However, this is pretending to be science, so to maintain the charade I added some regression lines just like real scientists do. The 2nd order polynomial trend (red) nicely shows the cooling, but the linear regression (black) still shows a warming trend for last spring.
Consulting with my Denialist mentors I saw how they cherry picked regressions that began from the highs of 1998 or 2001, so I choose an equally short line starting with the last highest temperature point (yellow).
Now we can clearly see the cooling trend that I was predicting, and which completely blows away the “Spring Warming Theory” hoax.
Of course many Deniers are not content to have demonstrated that climate science is false, they claim that their trend lines indicate that we are heading for an ice age.
I felt that I could do better than that (this is pretending to be science after all). I can not only predict an ice age, by extending the line (in the spirit of Lorne Gunter and others) I can predict when it will happen. So I extended the polynomial trend for 30 days.
With global temperatures dropping below freezing by the end of May we undoubtedly experienced huge crop failures and mass starvation.
Things got worse with temperatures continuing to plummet to -80 C by the end of June. Obviously by this point humanity and most life on earth was dying off. Humans undoubtedly went extinct in early July, and by mid to late July Earth was a frozen, lifeless ball comparable to Neptune.
I checked my idea against the ‘Denier Climate Theory Credibility Score’:
- Did I cherry pick unrepresentative locations and trivially short time spans? Check!
- Did I misrepresent the data I used? Check!
- Did I misuse analytic tools to get the results I wanted? Check!
- Did I not cite sources for data, methods, etc? Check!
- Did I dismiss the real science as flawed, corrupt or distorted rather than deal with it honestly? Not yet, but I will.
You see, the one flaw was how had this had been kept from everyone? How is it that summer 2008 never came and we went extinct instead, yet there was no mention of it in the main stream media?
Going back to the Denialosphere I quickly had my answer, a global conspiracy!
Obviously meteorologists and weathercasters would continue to claim that summer was coming because who needs a weatherman if you already know each day is just going to get colder? They were just trying to ensure their funding and jobs.
The mainstream media already had all of their ad campaigns for swimsuits, jet skis, and summer vacations lined up. There was no way they were going admit that it was a waste of advertiser money, so they weren’t going to breath a word about it either.
Of course the government is conspiring to establish a single world UN Government. How much easier is that when humanity is extinct and the planet is lifeless?
It obviously worked perfectly for their plan to claim that ‘Spring Warming Theory’ was real and summer was coming. That way the sheeple were kept docile while Agenda -21oC was implemented
I checked my idea against the ‘Denier Conspiracy Theory Credibility Score’ (rated against all existing Denier Conspiracy Theories):
- Is there absolutely no evidence for my claims whatsoever? Check!
- Is it utterly idiotic? Check!
- Does it fly in the face of the most basic common sense? Check!
- Did I include a reference to or picture of Al Gore, no matter how irrelevant? Check!
My conspiracy theory meets the standard criteria, and with that I have dismissed the real science and finished my ‘Climate Theory’ Test as well.
No doubt you will be reading about the ‘Spring Warming Theory Hoax’ at NewsBlusters, Wattsupmyass, and ClimateFraudit in the next week or two.
Since the scientists, weathercasters and IPSW (Intergovernmental Panel on Spring Warming) are all part of the conspiracy they would probably claim that I should have plotted the data from March to the end of May
or at least at all of May
but that would have hidden the real truth, that summer 2008 was not coming, humanity and earth was doomed – the facts don’t lie!
But for those who still believe that some people might misuse data and techniques in order to lie (oh, like to claim we are experiencing ‘Global Cooling’):
- Jules Klimaatblog has a good A layman’s guide on cherry-picking as to why this sort of thing is pure bullshit;
- Tamino illustrates some other recent data abuses in Cold Hard Facts;
- and Grumbine explains exactly why a 30 year run is what you need for any sort of meaningful climate science in How to decide climate trends.
- and many, many links debunking the “Global Cooling” idiocy.
Open Mind, More Grumbine Science, and RealClimate are good places to hang out to learn a lot more about how the Deniers abuse data.
Is what I have done here completely idiotic? of course!
And I did it in exactly the same way Carter, Monckton and the other Deniers conduct their stupidities.
The only real difference is that I did with an example that every thinking person would immediately realize is complete nonsense. The entire “Global Cooling” fable is every bit as idiotic because it comes from (mis)using the same methods, but it’s ridiculousness is less obvious to the average person.
There have been a number of good posts lately about the weather extremes and how they fit with climate change. A hardly complete list includes:
- Fractured air
- How hot should it have really been over the last 5 years?
- Australia 5+1
- Long hot summer
- Is there a link between Adelaide’s heatwave and global warming?
Which, mindful of Dr Pope’s admonitions, is to say that while they have not necessarily been caused by climate change, they are certainly consistent with what we understand of climate change.
Not that this will slow down the Deniers one little bit. They are happy to claim global cooling without even pretending to have facts, but hopefully it helps rational folks understand why ‘Global Cooling’ is such blithering nonsense.
Still not convinced global cooling is real? Here is a picture of a snowman in Miami Beach – if that’s not proof then I don’t know what is … which validates my credentials as a real Denier 😉
We give our consent every moment that we do not resist.
Denier “Challenge” aka Deathwatch Update: Day 115 … still no evidence.
IMAGE CREDITS
Snow in Miami? by SPONeill
Excellent post, Mike!
…Have you read Atmoz’ April Fool’s Experiment, by the way? (I’d link but am typing this from an iPod, which has a web browser without a copy command for long URLs. Switch to Mac, my ass. Just look at Atmoz.org on last April Fool’s.)
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Cool!
You have inspired me.
It’s obvious: there are lots and lots and lots of people and groups who have a strong vested interest in keeping up appearances of a coming summer. Think summer camp, summer apparel, summer solstice celebrations, …
What’s more, the leadership of world’s professional institutions have become overrun by Political Correct Summer Activists, and denying well-deserved prizes and awards to people who dare to challenge the Summer Orthodoxy.
What? There’s no real debate on whether summer exists? I say summer doesn’t exist, therefore obviously there is a debate. QED.
I have been so consistently impressed with climate science as it is practised by climate Deniers ….
AND weather men!
[This “comment” is an impressive collection of Denier drivel and spam that a 12 year old with a search engine would have known was nonsense … why do they bother? Mike]
The UN IPCC is a political body spitting out reports that are designed to support a predetermined political agenda. [1]
As for Al Gore:
Gores film An Inconvenient Truth is full of lies. Not exaggerations. Not errors.
Lies! [2]
Al Gore air brushed out the little ice age and the medieval warming periods from his graphs in AIT. We wouldn’t want people knowing that the earth was two degrees celsius warmer than it is now during the medieval warming period. Somehow man survived without the use of central cooling. Gore left off the little ice age because he wouldn’t want to demonstrate that the warming trend he talks about began at the end of an ice age. [3]
He also stated that sea lever would rise by 20 feet by the end of the century. Even the UN IPCC (harldy conservative on this issue) estimates only 4 to 36 inches. [4]
Gore also suggested that the Aral Sea has dried up because of global warming. In actuality it has been drained for the irrigation of cotton crops.
Gore claims that for the first time ever, a significant number of polar bears had drowned. First of all, they can swim around fifty miles. Secondly, the researchers at one of America’s most respected think tanks the Competitive Enterprise Institute [5] tracked down the study Gore was quoting and found that only four polar bears had drowned during severe storm conditions.
Furthermore, he quotes a quickly debunked paper suggesting there is a 100% consenus among scientists that athropogenic global warming is real. Here are a few scientists who must have missed the memo: [6]
http://www. — hootervillegazette.com/GlobalWarming.html
It is worth noting that a UK Court ruled that AIT contained many errors and should not be shown in public schools without a warning about the errors. [7]
http:// — newsbusters.org/blogs/noel-sheppard/2007/10/09/court-identifies-eleven-inaccuracies-al-gore-s-inconvenient-truth
I find it interesting that Al Gore talks the talk, but doesn’t walk the walk. He jets around the world in his private plane. He rides around in gas guzzling limousines, and has a compound so wasteful of energy that it needs its own power grid. His houseboat more than likely isn’t that energy efficient either.
I suppose conserving energy and fighting global warming is for the little people. Let the peasants drive the small dangerous energy efficient cars, I’ll drive what I want.
Al Gore was worth about $2 Million Dollars when leaving office and is worth over $100 Million now. [8] He’s laughing all the way to the global warming bank. It’s a pity some are too gullible to see it. As one of my favorite SNL characters might have said “global warming has been bery bery good to him.”
By the way, the flat earthers were the ones who refused to debate. “The debates over, we have a consensus.” Sound familiar? If anyone is a flat earther, it’s Al Gore.
Everyone who has seen An Inconvenient Truth should view The Great Global Warming Swindle in order to get a more balanced view of the true state of the science on this issue.
You may view it by visiting: [9]
http://www. — hootervillegazette.com/Videos.html
It is the first video listed.
Happy Viewing,
Dash RIPROCK III
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Seriously good stuff! Had me laughing (e.g. “climatefraudit”). Just last week I was talking to someone who hauled out the old claim that global warming stopped in 1998. Fortunately, he isn’t a denier….he just didn’t know the facts so I walked him briefly through the relevant ones. I’m going to forward this article to him now. You’ve captured the denialist methodology in a way that the average person can recognize.
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GreenFyre,
This is a treat. It is a superb study of the interpretive process of denialism.
Comprehensive and fair in every way to the perspective, it clearly illuminates the complex interaction between denier, world, and truth.
And my God it’s funny. Any chance of making this into a cartoon? 🙂
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Dude, if inanimate virtual objects could procreate, this post would be the bastard son of two of my recent posts (This one on climate stats, and this one, on denialism) and Monty Python. Which is appropriate, because I just watched an episode of the Flying Circus, and can now identify a Larch from Quite a Long Way Away.
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very cool!!!
Martha:
I’m thinking more along the lines of a YouTube video. :-B
Unfortunately, we don’t yet have an audio of an exploding head screaming, AAAALLLLGOOOOOORE!!!!!!11 which will definitely be an essential part of such a video…
Brilliant.
Instead of proof it should read SPOOF.
I took this picture after a snowstorm in Seattle. I was walking around and saw the snow on this palm tree and had to take the picture. So that is why I titled it the way I did.
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[…] am on February 16, 2009 | # | Mike Kaulbars, using the methodology of global warming deniers, shows that … summer 2008 never […]
This is absolutely wonderful! A great way to show people the intent and practices of climate deniers. Say, may I repost this on our blog here in Germany, of course referring to your site?
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The palm tree picture’s a fake? My God, it just gets funnier. 🙂
p.s. frankbi Wrong spot for this, I realize, but I have been reading your blog. Thank you for bringing Denis Rancourt’s bizarre trip to lala land to my attention. 😦
Mike,
The unexpected Spring warming is just undersea (underground?) volcanoes.
Hey, thanks! Rancourt’s conspiracy theory was interesting because it came from a left-anarchist point of view, but now it actually seems pretty bland compared to the ever-more-fanciful stuff that the far Right is churning out… 🙂 🙂
(You can comment at my blog, by the way.)
w00t. Now we just need to wait for a climate inactivist to take the photo and propagates it as real…
Underground volcanoes?
I’ll be darned….the dog did bury it with his bones.
It is a real picture, just in Seattle. The palm tree game me the idea for the title. Yes, there are palm trees in Seattle, just not as tall.
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Great post! I like how denier pseudo-science (which Inhofe Mockton types take seriosly) is just plain hilarious to those with their heads screwed on straight. Thanks for the laugh.
why are liberals all so gullible ? every hoax from overpopulation to silent spring to sunlight causes cancer to global cooling (oh wait… now it is global warming) has been propagated by the chatty liberal set. when will you ever learn ???
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LOL. Hansen and most of the alarmists were selling the next global ice age in the early 1970s. Now that global warming pays better they have changed their position yet many people who seem intelligent enough seem to fall for the deceptions. Climate changes people and the overwhelming scientific evidence is that the changes are due to natural factors.
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It sounds like a 3rd grader wrote this…how incredibly foolish you are
New York Times dated January 30, 1961.
The article, entitled SCIENTISTS AGREE WORLD IS COLDER; But Climate Experts Meeting Here Fail to Agree on Reasons for Change, reported on a unanimous agreement among scientists on several continents that the world was, indeed, getting cooler.
Humans were not blamed for climate change in the article, although greenhouse gas emissions were mentioned but it was determined that they could in no way alter climate.
Please stop posting stupidities that have been debunked as nonsense:
Climate Change anatomy of a myth
1970s Cooling consensus myth debunked
The denials are not exactly credible. There is too much evidence of prominent warmers making the prediction of a coming ice age. Interestingly enough, the founder of CRU, Hubert Lamb, was one of the people who was predicting the coming of the next ice age.
http://climategate.tv/?p=948
From what I can tell the AGW myth has been exposed and believers are leaving the cult in droves. Idiot politicians from around the world have stopped pushing their punitive redistribution efforts that would have consumers and taxpayers transfer wealth from their pockets to the pockets of advocates, environmental groups, and rent seekers looking for subsidies for green industry.